Utah State (@2.55) vs Wake Forest (@1.54)

Our Prediction:

Wake Forest will win

Utah State – Wake Forest Match Prediction | 27-08-2019 20:00

Im definitely not an expert on what Andersens coaching philosophy is, but from what I can deduce by looking at the stats, he loves to run the football. Obviously, it has been a couple of years since Andersen coached his last game, so his coaching style could have evolved or changed in that time. This is, of course, the exact opposite of what the Deacs want to do when they have ball. In his final full year at Oregon State, the Beavers were 51st in the nation in adjusted run rate and 115th in adjusted pace according to S&P+. In 2011, the Aggies ran the ball almost 50 times per game; in his 2 seasons at Wisconsin, the Badgers ran the ball 43 and 46 times per game respectively. Based on his career, however, it looks like Andersen wants to use a slower tempo, ball control offense to keep the play count in the 60-70 range.

The Aggies averaged 30 yards per kick return and they were 6th in the country in all-purpose yards with 7,627. They accumulated 237 punt return yards and averaged 9.1 yards per return, which was 64th in college football. That placed them 111th in Division 1 in punting average. Utah State was ranked 25th in the nation in punt returns with 26 last year. Their kickers had a field goal percentage of 79%. Their punters totaled 2,145 yards on 55 punts, averaging 39 yards per punt. Utah State Aggies kickers made 100% of their extra points, going 78 for 78 last year. They returned 30 kicks for 909 yards on special teams, ranking 13th in kick return yardage. The Utah State Aggies attempted 29 field goals last season and made 22, which was 7th in D-1.

Wake Forest is 4-2 SU in their last six games played and 5-1 SU in their last six games played in August. The Demon Deacons are 6-1 SU in their last 7 week 1 game. Head to head, Wake Forest beat Utah State 46-10 in their last meeting last September 16, 2017. Utah State is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games played and the Aggies are 4-1 SU in their last five games played at home.

Wake Forest vs. Utah State - 8/30/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

As a team they accumulated a total of 302 1st downs last year, placing them 27th overall as an offensive unit. The Aggies averaged 6.9 yards per play, which was 9th in college football. On the ground Utah State ran for 2,657 yards as a team, which ranked 31st in the country. They ran 944 plays last season for 6,482 yards, which ranked them 15th in the nation in total offense. They ran 478 times, averaging 5.5 yards per carry as a rushing unit. The Aggies were penalized on offense 101 times for 917 yards last season, which had them 8th in the nation in penalties. The Utah State Aggies were 4th in Division 1 in points scored with 618 last year.

The receiving corps returns just 1 player who caught more than 20 passes a season ago, and the offensive line has the difficult task of replacing 6 seniors (including 2 all conference offensive lineman) in the trenches. An inexperienced offensive line in the first game of the season is definitely a matchup that should favor the Deacs. Fortunately for USU, one of those starters is a very good quarterback in Jordan Love, who was 8th in the country last year in TD passes with 32 and 10th in QB rating. From their offense that was 2nd in the nation in points per game a season ago, they return just 2 starters, according to Mountain West Wire. They also return a solid runner in Gerold Bright, who was 34th in the nation with 6.3 yards per rush and finished last season with 1120 total yards and 13 TDs as the backup running back. Outside of the those 2 guys, the Aggies will be young and inexperienced everywhere else on the field. On the roster side of things, the Aggies lost a ton of production off last years team (from my calculations, almost 4,000 of their 6,482 yards).

Wake Forest is 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games played and the Demon Deacons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played at home. The Aggies are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played and they are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games like football betting underdogs. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games as betting favorite.

If you were paying attention during that information dump above, you probably noticed that Utah State was a very, very good team last season. Their only 2 losses on the year were a 7 point loss at Michigan State and a 9 point loss at Boise State. That, of course, means that the Aggies will look completely different this year when the Deacs play them. They had such a good season that their coach got hired away to a Power 5 job and arguably their best player, Darwin Thompson, decided to forego his final year of eligibility to declare for the NFL draft (he was drafted by the Chiefs in the 6th round).

2019 Atlantic Coast Conference Standings

the wager is returned in an Asian handicap bet)Void - bet where the wager is returned. There are plenty of reasons why bets are voided, for instance if a match was cancelled, a player did not play etc. A void bet should not be confused with draw (event result = @1) in Asian handicap bets even if both terms result in the same thing, the return of the wager.1/2 Win - Half the wager is a winning bet and half is a push in an Asian handicap bet.1/2 Lost - Half the wager is a losing bet and half is a push in an Asian handicap bet. (e.g. Outcomes:Draw - Full return in the event that actually happened.

The Demon Deacons had an over/under record of 7-5-1 and they were 5-8-0 against the spread. The Aggies had an ATS record of 10-3-0 last season while their over/under record was 9-4-0. The opening line for this game has Wake Forest as 2.5 point favorites. The Utah State Aggies travel to BB&T Field to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Friday, August 30, 2019.

He finished his first stint at USU with a 26-24 record over 4 years and won the Famous Idaho Bowl in 2012 before being hired by Wisconsin. Gary Andersen, the new (and old) coach at Utah State, started his coaching career with the Aggies in 2009. He won just 7 games in 3 years with the Beavers and resigned in 2017, leaving all of his $12mil buyout on the table. After 2 seasons and a 19-7 record with the Badgers, Anderson left for Oregon State, in part due to Wisconsins academic standards.

Utah States quick-hit offense isnt going to control the clock however, its going to set the tone of the game. After a season where their defensive line couldnt get to the run, the Utah State Aggies underwent a rebuild. Their veteran defense should be able to do the job on the Demon Deacons, making this a good matchup. There was some hope for instant help but unfortunately, Old Dominion transferee Miles Fox suffered a torn Achilles tendon. The Aggies have the accurate Jordan Love throwing the football and Im not sure if the Wake Forest defense can get to him.

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They are also getting back a lot of experience at the corner back position on a defense that was ranked 9th on passing downs by S&P+ last season. The biggest challenge for the USU defense going into the season will be replacing the loss of both starting safeties, who combined for 124 tackles, 6 interceptions, and 7 passes defended in 2018. On the defensive side, the Aggies should be just as good, if not better, than they were last year. They return a couple of key players in David Woodward, a 2018 Pro Football Focus 1st Team All American at linebacker, and Tipa Galeai, who finished last season with 10 sacks. DJ Williams is the player in the secondary the Wake QBs will need to be aware of; he finished last season with 4 interceptions and 11 passes defended. The Deacs could try to exploit that loss early by going deep in the passing game.

That ranked them 110th in the nation. The Utah State pass defense also gave up a total of 3,075 yards through the air, which was 93rd overall in total pass defense. Their rushing defense allowed 530 attempts for 1,862 yards last year, putting them in 44th place in D-1 against the run. Opposing offenses completed 244 passes on 455 attempts against the Utah State Aggies defense last season, placing them 87th and 112th in the country. They surrendered a total of 4,935 yards on D, which was 60th in Division 1. The Aggies were ranked 30th in yards per play allowed with 5. Utah State was 33rd in the nation in points allowed on defense with 289 last season. The Aggies committed 92 penalties for 803 yards on the defensive side of the ball last season.

The Aggies are coming out of a successful campaign in 2018, bagging a 11-2 record overall and a 7-1 record in Mountain West play. Utah State tied for first place in the conference, but lost out on the championship by way of a head-to-head loss with Boise State. Still, the Aggies drilled North Texas 52-13 in the New Mexico Bowl to end the year on a high note.